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Efraim Inbar..
bloomberg.com..
20 February ’12..

The upheaval in the Arab world has damaged Israel’s strategic environment. Its peace treaty with Egypt, a pillar of national security for more than three decades, is in question. More important, the events in the Arab world have deflected attention from Israel’s most feared scenario, a nuclear Iran, playing into the Iranian strategy to buy time in order to present the world with a nuclear fait accompli. Israel’s leaders fear that the international response is now unlikely to impact Iranian policy, at a point when its nuclear program is so advanced.

Only in November 2011 did the International Atomic Energy Agency, an institution that for years refused to call a spade a spade, publish a report voicing its concern over Iranian activities that do not easily fit with those of a civilian program. And only in January, did the European Union and the U.S. declare new sanctions that could have a significant effect on Iran’s economy. For Israel, this may have come too late.

Officials in Tel Aviv have tried to alert the West to the dangers of a nuclear Iran for more than a decade. They argued that Iran would cause the technology to proliferate in the region as states such as Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia sought such weapons, turning a multipolar nuclear Middle East into a strategic nightmare. A nuclear-armed Iran would strengthen its hegemony in the energy sector by its mere location along the oil-rich Persian Gulf and the Caspian Basin.

It would also result in the West’s loss of the Central Asian states, which would either gravitate toward Iran or try to secure a nuclear umbrella with Russia or China, countries much closer to the region than the U.S. is. A regime in Tehran emboldened by the possession of nuclear weapons would become more active in supporting radical Shiite elements in Iraq and agitating those communities in the Persian Gulf states.

Bombs to Proxies

Worse, since Iran backs terrorist organizations such as Hezbollah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad, it may be reckless enough to transfer nuclear bombs to such proxy organizations. They would have no moral constraints on detonating such a device in a European or American harbor. Iran’s nuclear program — coupled with further improvements in Iranian missiles — would initially put most European capitals, and eventually North American ones, within range of a potential attack.

Such arguments are nowadays more acceptable, but a large part of the Western strategic community, particularly on the European side of the Atlantic, views Iran as a rational actor that still can be dissuaded by economic sanctions. Moreover, even if Iran gets the bomb, it is argued that “it can be contained and deterred,” rejecting the “alarmist” view from officials in Jerusalem.

Israel is increasingly exasperated with Western attitudes for several reasons. First, it doesn’t believe that when Iran is so close to the bomb, sanctions are useful. Indeed, the history of economic sanctions indicates that a determined regime is unlikely to be affected by such difficulties. Moreover, the stakes that Iran’s ruling elite have in the nuclear program are inextricably connected to the regime’s political, and even physical, survival. The bomb is a guarantee for the government’s own future. Destabilizing a nuclear state, which may lead to chronic domestic instability, civil war or disintegration, is a more risky enterprise than undermining a non-nuclear regime.

Weak U.S. President

Unfortunately, American statements that all options are on the table, hinting at military action if sanctions fail, don’t impress the Iranians. The perception of most Middle Easterners, be it foes or friends of the U.S., is that President Barack Obama is extremely weak, hardly understands the harsh realities of the Middle East, and that American use of force is highly unlikely. Perceived American weakness undermines the chances of economic sanctions being effective.

Second, Israel’s threat perception is much higher than in the West, particularly after the recent Middle East turmoil. Actually, all Middle East leaders wear realpolitik lenses for viewing international affairs and tend to think in terms of worst-case scenarios. Israel’s leadership, in addition, sees through a Jewish prism and is unlikely to take a nonchalant view of existential threats to the Jewish state. Israeli fears have been fed by explicit statements from Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who advocated the destruction of Israel. Jewish history taught Israel that genocidal threats shouldn’t be dismissed.

Third, the strategic community in Israel questions the possibility of establishing a stable deterrence between Israel and Iran, modeled on the relationship between the two superpowers during the Cold War. Mutual deterrence between two nuclear protagonists is never automatic. Maintaining a second- strike capability is an ongoing process, which is inherently uncertain and ambiguous. Moreover, before an initial “effective” second-strike capability is achieved, a nuclear race may create the fear of a first-strike attack, which might itself trigger a nuclear exchange.

In a multipolar environment, achieving stable deterrence would be even more difficult. Middle Eastern powers would also have to establish early-warning systems that monitor in all directions. These are complicated and therefore inherently unstable, particularly when the distances between enemies are so small. The influence of haste and the need to respond quickly can have dangerous consequences. The rudimentary nuclear forces in the region also may be prone to accidents and mistakes.

While it can be argued that Middle East leaders behave rationally, many of them engage in brinkmanship leading to miscalculation. More important still, the value they place on human life is lower than in the West, making them insensitive to the costs of attack. Iranian leaders have said they are ready to pay a heavy price for the destruction of Israel, anticipating only minimal damage in the Muslim world.

As a result, the strategic calculus in Jerusalem indicates that preventing a nuclear Iran is important and urgent, justifying risks and considerable costs. Delaying Iran’s nuclear ambitions by even a few years would be a worthwhile achievement.

Moreover, the feeling in Israel is that the fears many analysts express of regional repercussions from an Israeli military strike are exaggerated.

The debate in Jerusalem is whether to allow more time for covert operations, or to initiate a pre-emptive strike against Iran’s nuclear installations. This is not an easy decision to make. An unexpectedly muscular Western move may spare Israel’s government the deliberations, but there is little hope that such a scenario will materialize. Once again, the Israelis would be left to go it alone.

Link: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-20/how-the-u-s-iran-standoff-looks-from-israel-efraim-inbar.html

Efraim Inbar is a professor of political studies at Bar- Ilan University and the director of the Begin-Sadat (BESA) Center for Strategic Studies. This is the fourth in a series of op-ed articles about Iran, from writers in countries that have a direct interest in the escalating debate over how to rein in its alleged nuclear weapons program. The opinions expressed are his own. Efraim.Inbar@biu.ac.il


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Love of the Land

Reporting

A passport must be reported missing or stolen as soon as it is discovered as such. This allows for the proper authorities to invalidate the document. If a passport is found by someone or stolen this ensures they will not be allowed to use it. Before reporting a passport lost or stolen it is important to verify that that is the case. Once a passport is reported missing it is automatically invalidated. This means that even if you were to find your passport, you would still need to replace it. This is added security to prevent the use of your passport and it will be red flagged upon use.

Replacement

Once the passport is correctly reported as missing or stolen then a replacement can be issued. It is a similar application to the original passport and two photos are needed for the replacement as well. As always, all documentation must be filled out correctly to ensure proper processing of the passport.

Loss Abroad

If a lost passport is incurred abroad it is a different situation. A passport acts as permission for someone to be in a different country. If an official asks for your documents and you cannot provide them, then you can be arrested and held until the proper documents arrive. This is why as soon as the status of a lost passport is known it must be reported to the officials. It will guarantee replacement and will give you temporary documentation until your passport arrives. In situations like these there are expediting services available.

Expediting

Expediting services can guarantee the arrival of documents in a certain time frame. These services are very helpful when it comes to a lost passport in a foreign country, as it can get your replacement to you quickly. These services are also helpful if you have an upcoming trip and didn’t realize your passport was missing. Expediting U.S. passport name change services cost more and will add to the overall cost of a replacement passport, but in certain cases it is necessary. Private companies can guarantee documents quicker than federal, but their prices are steeper as well.

At its best, university education has deteriorated into little more than random forays into the sciences, social sciences and humanities. But traditionally, and for good reason in a democracy, liberal education at its heart involved instruction in the principles of freedom.

If Yale and other institutions across the country were fulfilling their promise to educate students, then their faculties would teach that riding roughshod over due process shows ignorance of or contempt for the rule of law. Professors would be teaching that the presumption of innocence is rooted in a commitment to treating individuals as ends in themselves and not as a means to advancing some social goal or another, even if that goal is given the name of equality or justice. And students would be learning that our established and legitimate justice system does not presume guilt, because to do so is to fail to appreciate the limits of human knowledge and the propensity of those who wield power to abuse it.

Caroline Glick

German Origins

Over 95 million people in Europe speak German as their primary language. This has allowed German to become the third most commonly taught language in the world behind Spanish and French. Until the 1800s standard German was only seen in written form. This was due to the wide variety of pronunciations that were used in different regions of Europe. The German language remained divided this way until 1901 when they adopted a recognized, uniform pronunciation standard by which to go by.

Where German Is Spoken

The German language is closely related and very similar to both the Dutch and English languages. German is also used daily by people living all over Europe as a way to communicate with both one another and travelers. For example, Austria, Switzerland and Belgium all have vast populations of German speaking residents. Studies show that in Austria alone 89% of the population speaks German as their first language. In the America, research says 5% of the population uses German on a daily basis. That translates to about 1.4 million German speaking Americans.

European Recognition

With this many people on the planet speaking German everyday it would make sense that it was the official language of Germany. However, the only place in Germany that recognizes it as the official language of the people is Liechtenstein. German is also one of only 23 languages officially recognized by the European Union. It is the second most used language in Europe behind English.

German In American History

In the wake of the American Revolutionary War, the newly formed Continental Congress met in Philadelphia to decide on the official language of the newly formed United States. English edged out German to become the official language by one vote. Traveling to Germany can be a very exciting vacation for people looking to explore the German language further. It would certainly be beneficial before you travel to learn a few common phrases.

There are a multitude of different companies and universities that require a person to study German for certain career paths. These may include chemistry, international business, anatomy, and even mathematics. Learning to understand the German language will give an individual a better vocabulary and understanding of many other languages. It also has been proven that studying German increases a person’s literacy dramatically. The Rocket German program is a unique and proven way to increase a person’s proficiency in German. There is also a Rocket Italian reviews program for those wanting to learn more about that language.

JEAN-MARC JACOT, CEO OF PARMIGIANI (L), GUILLAUME MARX & NASR AL MAJED(R)  (OpenPR)

A unique diamond falcon clock created by Parmigiani Fleurier of Switzerland is being unveiled at the Doha 9th Jewellery and Watch Exhibition.

The piece honors the Middle Eastern tradition of falconry and depicts a falcon in mid-swoop.

The falcon is crafted from polished silver highlighted by 6000 brilliant-cut diamonds in a drop setting, accentuating the breadth of the bird's wingspan. Its beak and talons are made from gold and the cap on the top of its head is made from brilliant-cut white diamonds set by hand.

A total of 1,800 hours of work went into the piece, whose clockwork mechanism has the falcon seize its prey, a bustard, six times an hour. However, at irregular intervals the bustard “escapes” to the chime of a bell.

The base of the clock, made from smoky quartz and glass, features a silver cage decorated with a rosette pattern and ornamented with baguette-cut diamonds.

The clock’s face is also encrusted with jewels, with the hour ring being set with white and baguette-cut brown diamonds carefully set using a semi-invisible technique.  

(Source: OpenPR)

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Israeli Diamond Institute Blog

Gershom Gorenberg

My new column is up at The American Prospect:

Scrolling through news, especially news posted in America, I could think that it’s time for me to stock up on canned food and check that my family’s Israeli government-issue gas masks are working. The news suggests that Israel’s air force is sure to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities this year, perhaps this spring, possibly sparking a rain of retaliatory missiles from Iran and the Lebanese Hezbollah. Syria, despite or because of its current turmoil, might join in.

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak warned earlier this month that Iran would soon reach an “immunity zone” in which its nuclear program would be impregnable—implying that Israel must strike first. The news site Ha’aretz’s military commentator Amir Oren has bitterly expressed concern that the always-cocky ex-general Barak and his “assistant for prime ministerial affairs, Benjamin Netanyahu,” might give the orders on their own, even though the law requires approval of the full cabinet to go to war.

The Washington Post‘s David Ignatius reported that U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta thinks that Israel is likely to attack in April, May, or June. President Barack Obama, typecast as the last responsible adult in the room, has stated publicly that “I don’t think that Israel has made a decision,” a comment that could arguably be read as, “We told Israel not to make a decision.” But according to Newsweek, the head of Israel’s Mossad espionage agency visited Washington to check whether this meant “uh, no, maybe” or “NO!” A New York Times Magazine article said, “A kind of panic has begun to overtake Israeli society,” adding that “gas masks have been distributed to the population.”

But the people around me in Israeli society don’t seem to be panicking. Perhaps it’s because no one I know has received official notice that it’s time to get gas masks from the Home Front Command—in contrast to the nationwide distribution effort during the period of real tension before the 1991 Gulf War. In fact, the low level of public preparedness suggests two possible conclusions: Netanyahu, Barak, and other top officials could be confident, or terribly overconfident, that Iran and its allies will not retaliate in a serious way. Alternatively, the bellicose public comments and sundry leaks are designed for political purposes, foreign or domestic.

Netanyahu and Barak presumably know which of those alternatives is correct. Analysts, ex-diplomats, bloggers, and even the best-connected reporters have no idea. Lacking information about what’s being discussed in closed meetings today, they continue to draw on historical examples as they argue about whether it’s necessary or sensible for Israel—or the United States—to ready a military option. But history is a terribly enigmatic and sometimes deceptive teacher.

Among those who advocate Israeli military action, the obvious appeal to history is “It’s 1938 and Iran is Germany.” Those are Netanyahu’s words from five years ago, but some Israeli moderates, critical of the prime minister on every other issue, agree with this view of Iran. Like Hitler, Iran’s leaders prefer killing Jews to self-preservation, says this logic, so even Israel’s presumed second-strike capability would not deter them from using a nuclear bomb against Israel.

But thinking in 1938 terms risks an even more hard-line implication: Any diplomatic engagement with Iran will lead to Chamberlain-style appeasement. So military action is not just the final option; it’s the only option. Despite their emotional appeal, history’s extreme examples can close off rather than aid analysis. …

Read the rest here.

South Jerusalem

Passport

Expedited passport service is available online and makes getting ready for an international trip very easy. It is no longer necessary to go to physical location to obtain a passport. Now you can simply visit a virtual passport office right from your home computer and take care of all your passport needs.

Religious Sites

Overlooking the Atlantic Ocean, the Hassan II Mosque is a wonderful spot for tourists to experience in Morocco. You can enjoy the splendor of a Muslim place of worship as well as unique Moroccan architecture. It is the only mosque in the city where non-Muslims are allowed to come inside. The Hassan II Mosque is the 7th largest mosque in the world and its minaret is the tallest of its kind. The mosque is capable of holding around 105,000 visitors. It is regarded as one of the most stunning buildings in the world. Part of the interior floor is glass that allows for a view down to the Atlantic Ocean. It is inspired by a verse in the Qur’an that says, “The throne of Allah was built on water.”

Famous Neighborhoods

The Corniche is a famous neighborhood in Morocco built along the water. Many compare it to the modern-day New Jersey Shore, thanks to all the nightclubs, resorts, and extravagant hotels. It makes for a great place to stroll at night to witness the hectic party scene or during the day for beautiful ocean views at a seaside cafe. Octagon Square is another great spot to walk and people-watch in Morocco.

Street Markets

There are four main medinas in Casablanca worth visiting: Habous, Fes, Marrakesh, and Rabat. Each has many street vendors that make it easy to spend the day exploring and shopping. Items such as rugs, lamps, local foods, clothing, and accessories can all be purchased here. It is a great spot to pick up some authentic Moroccan souvenirs.

Popular Activities

One of the most popular things to do in Casablanca is Les Bains Ziani, or a local spa treatment. It involves a steam room, scrubbing, and a massage. You will leave feeling refreshed and great. While many might think this experience would make them uneasy, that is rarely the case. It is an important and thrilling cultural tradition, like public baths in Turkey, and many people think of it as their favorite memory from visiting Casablanca. A expedited pass port replacement is easy to get.